This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%
Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 0.99653 | 0 | 0.00049 |
2 | 0.99999 | 0.49861 | 0.00049 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.74967 | 0.12423 |
4 | 1 | 0.8747 | 0.28078 |
5 | 1 | 0.93678 | 0.42832 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96862 | 0.55498 |
7 | 1 | 0.98438 | 0.65938 |
8 | 1 | 0.99225 | 0.74007 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99642 | 0.80317 |
10 | 1 | 0.99837 | 0.85069 |
11 | 1 | 0.99912 | 0.88798 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99947 | 0.91541 |
13 | 1 | 0.99978 | 0.9367 |
14 | 1 | 0.9999 | 0.95236 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99995 | 0.96421 |
16 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.97333 |
17 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98058 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.9858 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.98934 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99199 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99419 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.9959 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99703 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99783 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99858 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99902 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99942 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99964 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99986 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00046 |
2 | 1 | 0.50431 | 0.00046 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.75442 | 0.12847 |
4 | 1 | 0.87835 | 0.28513 |
5 | 1 | 0.9391 | 0.43691 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96953 | 0.5642 |
7 | 1 | 0.98457 | 0.6688 |
8 | 1 | 0.99223 | 0.74847 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99626 | 0.81055 |
10 | 1 | 0.99828 | 0.85798 |
11 | 1 | 0.99908 | 0.89374 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99952 | 0.92057 |
13 | 1 | 0.99979 | 0.94039 |
14 | 1 | 0.99991 | 0.95553 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99995 | 0.9668 |
16 | 1 | 0.99997 | 0.97488 |
17 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98143 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98659 |
19 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98973 |
20 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99247 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99447 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99613 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99736 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99798 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99865 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99921 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99946 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99965 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99985 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |