This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%
Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 0.99618 | 0 | 0.00044 |
2 | 0.99999 | 0.49848 | 0.00044 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.74943 | 0.12386 |
4 | 1 | 0.87559 | 0.28002 |
5 | 1 | 0.93767 | 0.43029 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96831 | 0.55809 |
7 | 1 | 0.98431 | 0.66089 |
8 | 1 | 0.99211 | 0.74041 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99626 | 0.80335 |
10 | 1 | 0.99836 | 0.85179 |
11 | 1 | 0.99917 | 0.88874 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99961 | 0.91681 |
13 | 1 | 0.99981 | 0.93796 |
14 | 1 | 0.9999 | 0.95365 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99997 | 0.96559 |
16 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.97451 |
17 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98106 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.98589 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.98913 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.992 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99405 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99562 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99685 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99764 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99835 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99888 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99927 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99958 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99981 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00035 |
2 | 1 | 0.5031 | 0.00035 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.753 | 0.12781 |
4 | 1 | 0.87574 | 0.28523 |
5 | 1 | 0.93878 | 0.43527 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96976 | 0.56442 |
7 | 1 | 0.98496 | 0.66748 |
8 | 1 | 0.99277 | 0.74838 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99644 | 0.80982 |
10 | 1 | 0.99828 | 0.85779 |
11 | 1 | 0.99931 | 0.89352 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99957 | 0.92047 |
13 | 1 | 0.99982 | 0.94136 |
14 | 1 | 0.99994 | 0.9558 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99997 | 0.96684 |
16 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.97565 |
17 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98203 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.98669 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.99057 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99294 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99506 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99632 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99737 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.9981 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99864 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.9991 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99946 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99963 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99982 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |