This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%

Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.

TurnLv 1Lv 2Lv 3
10.9957900.00061
20.999980.497970.00061
3(1 I)10.74850.12407
410.873550.27837
510.93560.42556
6(2 I)10.968110.55463
710.983870.65869
810.991880.73971
9(3 I)10.996040.80279
1010.997940.8505
1110.998940.88829
12(4 I)10.999470.91544
1310.999710.93656
1410.999820.95237
15(5 I)10.999910.96436
1610.999950.97341
1710.999960.97992
18(6 I)10.999990.98481
1910.999990.98822
20110.99132
21(7 I)110.99384
22110.9955
23110.99667
24(8 I)110.99753
25110.99827
26110.99878
27(9 I)110.99918
28110.99947
29110.99979
30(10 I)111



And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
TurnLv 1Lv 2Lv 3
1100.00037
210.503540.00037
3(1 I)10.754710.1289
410.879680.28843
510.940250.43832
6(2 I)10.970560.56587
710.985680.66874
810.992680.74833
9(3 I)10.996520.80917
1010.99830.85698
1110.99920.89325
12(4 I)10.999560.92112
1310.999790.94046
1410.999910.95543
15(5 I)10.999970.96648
1610.999990.97527
1710.999990.98155
18(6 I)10.999990.98632
19110.99013
20110.99262
21(7 I)110.99477
22110.99625
23110.99721
24(8 I)110.998
25110.99865
26110.99913
27(9 I)110.99944
28110.99962
29110.99986
30(10 I)111