DW4 Tournament Odds

HP Str Wins Hun Roric Vivian Sampson Linguar Wins (Out of 10,000)
72 38 1522 0 616 385 6622 855 HP 72 1522 1792 2523 3184 4819 5505
72 40 1792 0 538 265 6271 1134 76 1641 2083 3065 3883 5824 6503
72 42 2523 0 395 93 5057 1932 80 1924 2357 3719 4611 6566 7215
72 44 3184 0 308 94 4105 2309 84 2154 2649 4210 5027 6965 7573
76 38 1641 0 524 150 6662 1023 88 2319 3023 4587 5702 7309 7846
76 40 2083 0 430 112 6002 1373 92 2702 3422 5123 6121 7710 8261
76 42 3065 0 397 32 3978 2528 38 40 42 44 46 48
76 44 3883 0 307 25 3099 2686 Str
80 38 1924 0 338 73 6543 1122
80 40 2357 0 304 38 5586 1715
80 42 3719 0 238 13 3117 2913 Difference in Wins as HP Increases Percent Difference in Wins as HP Increases
80 44 4611 0 196 5 2369 2819 HP Diff (72)             HP Diff (72)            
84 38 2154 0 271 11 6333 1231 +4 119 291 542 699 1005 998 +4 107.82% 116.24% 121.48% 121.95% 120.85% 118.13%
84 40 2649 0 236 12 5207 1896 +8 283 274 654 728 742 712 +8 117.25% 113.15% 121.34% 118.75% 112.74% 110.95%
84 42 4210 0 193 3 2692 2902 +12 230 292 491 416 399 358 +12 111.95% 112.39% 113.20% 109.02% 106.08% 104.96%
84 44 5027 0 172 0 2043 2758 +16 165 374 377 675 344 273 +16 107.66% 114.12% 108.95% 113.43% 104.94% 103.60%
88 38 2319 0 349 7 5962 1363 +20 383 399 536 419 401 415 +20 116.52% 113.20% 111.69% 107.35% 105.49% 105.29%
88 40 3023 0 147 3 4766 2061 38 40 42 44 46 48 38 40 42 44 46 48
88 42 4587 0 111 0 2334 2968 Str Str
88 44 5702 0 58 0 1632 2608
92 38 2702 0 354 3 5160 1781
92 40 3422 0 89 1 3973 2515 Difference in Wins as Str Increases Percent Difference in Wins as Str Increases
92 42 5123 0 49 0 1746 3082 HP 72   270 731 661 1635 686 HP 72   117.74% 140.79% 126.20% 151.35% 114.24%
92 44 6121 0 32 0 1210 2637 76   442 982 818 1941 679 76   126.93% 147.14% 126.69% 149.99% 111.66%
72 46 4819 0 251 68 2591 2271 80   433 1362 892 1955 649 80   122.51% 157.79% 123.98% 142.40% 109.88%
72 48 5505 0 127 38 2571 1759 84   495 1561 817 1938 608 84   122.98% 158.93% 119.41% 138.55% 108.73%
76 46 5824 0 247 19 1905 2005 88   704 1564 1115 1607 537 88   130.36% 151.74% 124.31% 128.18% 107.35%
76 48 6503 0 142 12 1848 1495 92   720 1701 998 1589 551 92   126.65% 149.71% 119.48% 125.96% 107.15%
80 46 6566 0 121 3 1416 1894 (38) +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 (38) +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
80 48 7215 0 88 7 1439 1251 Str Diff Str Diff
84 46 6965 0 111 1 1305 1618
84 48 7573 0 77 1 1207 1142
88 46 7309 0 72 0 1061 1558 Odds of Having the Stats Chances to Win Times Odds of Having the Stats
88 48 7846 0 57 0 1074 1023 HP 72 0.14% 0.50% 1.46% 1.57% 0.73% 0.24% HP 72 0.02% 0.09% 0.37% 0.50% 0.35% 0.13%
92 46 7710 0 15 0 733 1542 76 0.33% 1.23% 3.56% 3.81% 1.77% 0.58% 76 0.05% 0.26% 1.09% 1.48% 1.03% 0.38%
92 48 8261 0 10 1 759 969 80 0.70% 2.61% 7.55% 8.08% 3.74% 1.23% 80 0.13% 0.61% 2.81% 3.72% 2.46% 0.88%
84 0.76% 2.83% 8.22% 8.79% 4.07% 1.33% 84 0.16% 0.75% 3.46% 4.42% 2.84% 1.01%
88 0.59% 2.21% 6.41% 6.85% 3.18% 1.04% 88 0.14% 0.67% 2.94% 3.91% 2.32% 0.82%
Odds to Have HP Values (& Cumulative) Odds to Have Str Values (& Cumulative) 92 0.26% 0.98% 2.84% 3.04% 1.41% 0.46% 92 0.07% 0.34% 1.46% 1.86% 1.09% 0.38%
<=72 4.65% 95.35% <=39 2.92% 97.08% 38 40 42 44 46 48 38 40 42 44 46 48
73-76 11.32% 84.03% 40-41 10.86% 86.22% Str Str
77-80 23.99% 60.04% 42-43 31.48% 54.74%
81-84 26.10% 33.94% 44-45 33.66% 21.08% Sum: 95.1% Sum: 45.0%
85-88 20.35% 13.59% 46-47 15.61% 5.47% Adjusted: 47.3% (45.0% / 95.1%)
89-92 9.03% 4.56% 48-49 5.11% 0.36% Minus Top Str Row: 43.7% (Yolo Str Seeds)
Subtotal 95.44% Subtotal 99.64% Minus Top HP Row: 42.1% (Yolo HP Seeds)




Notes:
These statistics were pulled from an emulator simulation. Ten thousand trials were performed on the tournament with the given array of strength/HP values. Alena's agility was average for level 11, and the other stats should be irrelevant.

Max HP: 72-92 (Multiplies of 4)
Max MP: 0
Strength: 38-48 (Evens only)
Agility: 26 (43.8% chance to have 26 agi at level 11)
Vitality: 32 (afaik doesn't affect combat)
Intelligence: 10 (afaik doesn't affect combat)
Luck: 33 (afaik does nothing in DW4)
Attack Power: 76-86 (Strength + 38 Iron Claw)
Defense Power: 39 (13 from agility, +18 Chain Mail, +8 Feather Hat)
Inventory: Iron Claw (E), Chain Mail (E), Feather Hat (E), Herb, Herb, Herb, Herb, Herb

A LUA script was used in FCEU to run through the arena with the following logic:
- Load save state, set HP/Str appropriately, enter arena
- Mash A until Hun dies
    - No logic to heal during this fight; Hun still went 0 - 36,000 against Alena
- Use exactly one herb before Roric
- Against Roric, herb if Alena has less than 31 HP, and Roric has over (str / 2 - 13) HP. Else, attack.
    - Roric can deal up to 32 damage in two attacks; this isn't perfectly safe but losing to him isn't a huge time loss so I figured this is how I'd play it in runs.
- Use herbs until within 20 HP of max before Vivian
- Against Vivian, attack until she dies.
    - In runs, you can parry against her to wait out her MP, but it's just to save time; you take about the same damage either way.
- Before Sampson, herb until within 10 HP of max.
- Against Sampson, assume Alena goes first (26 agi vs 15; not entirely safe).
    - If Sampson is > 45 HP, herb if missing more than 30 HP.
    - Else, herb if under 20 HP and Alena's attack won't kill.
    - Else, attack.
- Before Linguar, herb until within 20 HP of max.
- Against Linguar, herb if missing 40 or more HP.
    - If Linguar builds up power and Alena is missing less than 40 HP, attack the one that built up.
        - I think this is a copy/paste error? Would've made more sense to base it on current HP being 21+ than basing it on missing HP.
    - Else, attack A.

There are some things I could tweak (heal lines, parry against Vivian, fixing that Linguar logic) to see if they affect the final percentages, but I don't think any of it would matter too terribly much.

Takeaways:
    - You have about a 45% chance to win the tournament if you get past the grind.
    - Yoloing the HP or Str (!) seeds only lowers this to 42-43%.
        - You would still scum all seeds if you're not grinding metal slimes.
    - Savescumming your last levelup in a non-metal slime grind will be worth it if it gets you over 42 or 46 str.
    - One tournament loss isn't a dead run, so these odds really aren't that bad.