This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%
Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 0.99627 | 0 | 0.00048 |
2 | 0.99998 | 0.49981 | 0.00048 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.7483 | 0.12506 |
4 | 1 | 0.87443 | 0.28104 |
5 | 1 | 0.93715 | 0.42868 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96886 | 0.55619 |
7 | 1 | 0.98449 | 0.65995 |
8 | 1 | 0.99255 | 0.74103 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99635 | 0.80364 |
10 | 1 | 0.99824 | 0.85181 |
11 | 1 | 0.99904 | 0.8888 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.9994 | 0.91624 |
13 | 1 | 0.99967 | 0.9378 |
14 | 1 | 0.99983 | 0.9534 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99993 | 0.96562 |
16 | 1 | 0.99993 | 0.97423 |
17 | 1 | 0.99997 | 0.98073 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.98572 |
19 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.98929 |
20 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99194 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99402 |
22 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99572 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99685 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.9977 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99841 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99899 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99939 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99967 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.9999 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00038 |
2 | 1 | 0.50455 | 0.00038 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.75539 | 0.13064 |
4 | 1 | 0.87849 | 0.28962 |
5 | 1 | 0.93936 | 0.43995 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96977 | 0.56772 |
7 | 1 | 0.98513 | 0.66973 |
8 | 1 | 0.99253 | 0.7503 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99625 | 0.81032 |
10 | 1 | 0.99826 | 0.85803 |
11 | 1 | 0.99905 | 0.89337 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99954 | 0.92103 |
13 | 1 | 0.99979 | 0.94087 |
14 | 1 | 0.99986 | 0.95676 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99993 | 0.96782 |
16 | 1 | 0.99996 | 0.97629 |
17 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98266 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.98731 |
19 | 1 | 0.99999 | 0.99098 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99334 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99494 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99627 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99723 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99794 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99865 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99909 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99942 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.9997 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99986 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |