This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%
Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 0.99612 | 0 | 0.00051 |
2 | 0.99998 | 0.50042 | 0.00051 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.74967 | 0.12586 |
4 | 1 | 0.87436 | 0.28245 |
5 | 1 | 0.93684 | 0.43015 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96851 | 0.55785 |
7 | 1 | 0.98414 | 0.66045 |
8 | 1 | 0.99214 | 0.74175 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99586 | 0.80476 |
10 | 1 | 0.99797 | 0.85319 |
11 | 1 | 0.99903 | 0.88951 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.9995 | 0.91638 |
13 | 1 | 0.99975 | 0.93751 |
14 | 1 | 0.99988 | 0.95314 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99992 | 0.96572 |
16 | 1 | 0.99996 | 0.97462 |
17 | 1 | 0.99996 | 0.98041 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.98523 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.98915 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99214 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99418 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99577 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99685 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99775 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99838 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99894 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99943 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99965 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99985 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00029 |
2 | 1 | 0.50071 | 0.00029 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.75203 | 0.12835 |
4 | 1 | 0.87787 | 0.28658 |
5 | 1 | 0.93954 | 0.43686 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.97046 | 0.56476 |
7 | 1 | 0.98526 | 0.66641 |
8 | 1 | 0.99299 | 0.7487 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99673 | 0.81041 |
10 | 1 | 0.99836 | 0.85795 |
11 | 1 | 0.99914 | 0.89422 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99954 | 0.92197 |
13 | 1 | 0.99977 | 0.94223 |
14 | 1 | 0.99985 | 0.95653 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99994 | 0.96779 |
16 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.97584 |
17 | 1 | 1 | 0.98233 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.98686 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.99028 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99284 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99484 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99626 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99736 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99801 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99852 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99903 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99945 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99973 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99985 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |