This file will simulate the chances of your party getting hit with a tier three knowledge bomb after a certain number of turns. You start at tier zero, and the chances of leveling up each round are as follows:
0 => 1: 255/256
1 => 2: 50%
2 => 3: 25%
Basically, the AI learns what monsters are immune to after you hit level 3 and they will stop casting spells that have no chance of working.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 0.99605 | 0 | 0.00047 |
2 | 0.99999 | 0.49796 | 0.00047 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.74805 | 0.12582 |
4 | 1 | 0.87357 | 0.28052 |
5 | 1 | 0.93743 | 0.42976 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96915 | 0.55503 |
7 | 1 | 0.98437 | 0.65771 |
8 | 1 | 0.99219 | 0.74035 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99619 | 0.80312 |
10 | 1 | 0.99819 | 0.85125 |
11 | 1 | 0.99901 | 0.88848 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99953 | 0.91573 |
13 | 1 | 0.99975 | 0.93668 |
14 | 1 | 0.99986 | 0.95262 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99993 | 0.96422 |
16 | 1 | 0.99996 | 0.97351 |
17 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.97995 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.98506 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.98923 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.99205 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99408 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99572 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99686 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99789 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99851 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99897 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99931 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.99954 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.99978 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
And again, with +1/256 to each chance.
Turn | Lv 1 | Lv 2 | Lv 3 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00034 |
2 | 1 | 0.5029 | 0.00034 |
3(1 I) | 1 | 0.75366 | 0.12808 |
4 | 1 | 0.87842 | 0.28954 |
5 | 1 | 0.93977 | 0.44083 |
6(2 I) | 1 | 0.96991 | 0.56847 |
7 | 1 | 0.98465 | 0.67079 |
8 | 1 | 0.99254 | 0.75071 |
9(3 I) | 1 | 0.99643 | 0.81292 |
10 | 1 | 0.99813 | 0.86065 |
11 | 1 | 0.999 | 0.89591 |
12(4 I) | 1 | 0.99951 | 0.92206 |
13 | 1 | 0.9998 | 0.94206 |
14 | 1 | 0.99988 | 0.95671 |
15(5 I) | 1 | 0.99996 | 0.96749 |
16 | 1 | 0.99998 | 0.97581 |
17 | 1 | 1 | 0.98196 |
18(6 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.98661 |
19 | 1 | 1 | 0.99044 |
20 | 1 | 1 | 0.9931 |
21(7 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99501 |
22 | 1 | 1 | 0.99629 |
23 | 1 | 1 | 0.99721 |
24(8 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99809 |
25 | 1 | 1 | 0.99869 |
26 | 1 | 1 | 0.99917 |
27(9 I) | 1 | 1 | 0.99947 |
28 | 1 | 1 | 0.9997 |
29 | 1 | 1 | 0.9999 |
30(10 I) | 1 | 1 | 1 |