Odds of Heavy Armor Appearing in Past Dharma Lucky Panel Board ======================= Base chance to appear - 2/5934 (0.0337%) Heavy Armor is in item group 11. Group 11 items have 200+100+100+50+2 (Leather, Shell, Iron, Steel & Heavy armors) = 352/5934 to appear ======================= "Control" experiment - Odds of winning a 2/5934 in three draws Each draw is only about 0.03% weaker than the previous. Final result should be roughly 3x .0337%. First Draw 0.03370% [2/5934] 2nd Draw 0.03369% [(1-(2/5934)) * 2/5934] 3rd Draw + 0.03368% [(1-(2/5934 + (1-(2/5934)) * 2/5934)) * 2/5934] ------------------- 0.1011% (1/989 boards) ======================= Now, factoring in the other items. 352/5934 = about 6%, so each draw should be 6% weaker than the previous. First Draw 0.0337% [2/5934] 2nd Draw 0.0317% [(1-(352/5934)) * 2/5934] 3rd Draw + 0.0298% [(1-(352/5934 + (1-(352/5934)) * 352/5934)) * 2/5934] ------------------- 0.0952% (1/1050 boards) ======================= In total, the other items only lower the chance of drawing the item by about 6%, which in hindsight makes sense. Draw #1 is at 100% power, draw #2 is at 94%, draw #3 is at 88%, which averages to about 94%. The larger the chance of the total item pool and the lower the chance of the specific item, the more it would be affected by this. ======================= New experiment: Group 39 @ Coastal 1st floor - Monster Hearts Rainhawk Heart is a 2/6283 here, 0.0318% Heart group sums to 807/6273, 12.86%, so each draw should be 13% weaker than the previous. Three draws @ 2/6273 would simply be 0.09562% (1/1046 boards) First Draw 0.0318% [2/6273] 2nd Draw 0.0278% [(1-(807/6273)) * 2/6273] 3rd Draw + 0.0242% [(1-(807/6273 + (1-(807/6273)) * 807/6273)) * 2/6273] ------------------- 0.0838% (1/1193 boards) Again, a 12.4% drop, roughly the weight of the entire group. ====================== Another LP mini-experiment - Tiles to flip over to ensure a partial search will find the right board 10 sets of tiles - 3 items, hands, six pairs of symbols To simplify this, pretend it's just ten pairs of symbols. Flipping one rules out 90% of boards Then 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%... If you're searching 200-400 boards, four tiles should be plenty. Six tiles with hands and specific item icons should be a guarantee.